La burbuja de petróleo: ¿Ha tocado suelo o seguirá cayendo?
La burbuja de petróleo: ¿Ha tocado suelo o seguirá cayendo?
El petróleo West Texas Intermediate (Petróleo crudo WTI) cerro la jornada de cotización a u$s 23,80 por barril, marcando un subida del +5,17% durante la jornada de hoy lunes 23 de marzo. Desde la gran subida que tuvo la semana pasada y posterior bajada, vuelve a encontrarse en una zona muy complicada para trabajar en la que el riesgo de operar es muy elevado.
El desplome de la demanda por el coronavirus y un aumento del suministro en medio de una lucha por la cuota de mercado entre Rusia y Arabia Saudí son los factores que lastran la cotización del barril. Aunque hoy luce el verde en los futuros de crudo, los analistas siguen mostrando gran pesimismo si la demanda sigue cayendo y la oferta al alza. Paul Sankey, director de Mizuho Securities, cree que el crudo podría caer a cero dólares porque pronto será más caro tenerlo almacenado que regalarlo, sobre todo si los inventarios siguen al alza.
El fenómeno del coronavirus sumado a la guerra comercial entre EE.UU y China junto con el aumento de producción de petróleo de EE.UU (“revolución del shale”), son un cóctel detonante que también amenazan la caída de precios de los hidrocarburos.
Por prudencia no deberíamos intentar operaciones alcistas, si no se generaran movimientos que llevaran el precio por encima de R2 situada u$s 30,60 por barril, que está muy lejos. No es probable que se alcancen estos niveles a no ser que hubiera algo en el entorno macro que provocara una reacción importante.
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