Coronavirus: Qué tan rápidamente es la expansión del covid-19 por América Latina
Coronavirus: Qué tan rápidamente es la expansión del covid-19 por América Latina
El virus llegó a la región el pasado 26 de febrero, lo que también implica que en menos de dos semanas el número de casos ha aumentado en un 10.5%. Y aunque todos los primeros contagios se produjeron en el extranjero, según la OMS en al menos cinco países latinoamericanos ya se han registrado ejemplos de transmisión local.
Los expertos advierten sobre la dificultad de predecir el comportamiento de una epidemia, especialmente en casos de nuevos virus como el del covid-19.
Pero el profesor Paul Hunter, un experto de la Universidad de East Anglia, en Reino Unido, identifica al menos cuatro factores que influyen en su posible propagación: la suerte, la capacidad de los sistemas de salud, el clima y la densidad poblacional.
Cuando se vieron los primeros contagios (de covid-19) fuera de China, estos se dieron en lugares con frecuentes conexiones aéreas a ese país.
Los 25 casos registrados en Brasil menos de dos semanas después de la identificación del paciente cero sugieren un ritmo de contagio inicial superior incluso al de Italia, que tardó tres semanas en llegar a 20 positivos.
La forma en la que un virus se propaga tiene mucho que ver con la suerte: por ejemplo si hay una persona que en su momento más infeccioso viaja a un lugar especialmente propicio, este puede contraer el virus, no obstante, la capacidad del sistema de salud para manejar a los afectados tendrá mucho que decir en el resultado final, como demuestra por ejemplo la situación de Irán.
Listado de la expansión del COVID-19 por América Latina:
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