La nueva guerra del petróleo hunde los mercados: ¿Estamos ante una nueva crisis?
La nueva guerra del petróleo hunde los mercados: ¿Estamos ante una nueva crisis?
Tras la falta de acuerdos en la OPED, los mercados al rojo vivo después de que Arabia Saudí ha comenzado una nueva guerra de petróleo, al anunciar fuertes descuentos y un posible aumento de la producción de petróleo el próximo mes de abril. Esto ha provocado que los precios de petróleo se desplomen casi un 30%, lo que ha puesto un ‘mazazo’ para unos mercados que no terminan de levantar cabeza por el efecto coronavirus.
El aumento de producción por parte de Arabia Saudí podría ser de 1 millón de barilles al día, que se uniría a la finalización de los recortes actuales en marzo. Y Rusia, por su parte, podría aumentar en 300.000 barriles al día, que iría en contra del acuerdo de recorte de 1,5 millones de barriles al día propuesto la semana pasada por la OPEP.
La caída manda a los infiernos a los sectores bursátiles de energía de todo el mundo. Goldman dice que el crudo se moverá entre 20 y 30 dólares por barril con todas las derivadas económicas que esto va a tener. No se veía una caída en 1 día así desde 1991 en la guerra de Irak.
¿Estamos ante una nueva crisis?
El movimiento de Arabia Saudí puede terminar generando una fuerte crisis en el sector que, en el caso de las compañías más endeudadas y con vencimientos de deuda a corto plazo, podría suponer su caída. Entendemos que esta arriesgada estrategia por parte de Arabia Saudita, que no será implementada hasta el mes de abril, debería hacer reaccionar a sus socios dentro de la OPEP, ya que nadie va a salir ganando con esta guerra.
Es muy complicado dar confianza si no sabemos cuál va a ser el efecto real de la parálisis económica que de momento está por venir, pues no han empezado los datos a reflejarlo, ya que se ha perdido de manera general el mínimo del trallazo anterior del crash, por lo que estamos en una inquietante onda 3 que nos podría llevar mucho más abajo. El nivel clave ahora lo buscan todos en la media semanal del S&P 500, muy cerca del retroceso de Fibonacci del 61,8% de toda la subida anterior desde enero de 2019.
Además de la nueva guerra del petróleo, hay que sumarle la crisis del COVID-19 asustando a los mercados.
Las noticias del fin de semana en Italia, con el centro financiero del país, Milán, cerrada a la usanza de la táctica usada por los chinos ha impactado a los mercados. Las consecuencias económicas del virus siguen siendo imprevisibles. Los casos aumentan velozmente en España, Francia, Alemania, y también en los países latinoamericanos que es una economía más sensible ante estos efectos. En nuestro país, MINSA confirma que asciende a 7 los casos de coronavirus en todo el Perú.
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